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In the financial crisis, China's entrepreneurial investment and foreign trade services
[Summary] In 2007, the US subprime mortgage crisis was used as the fuse, which caused another worldwide financial finance crisis. This financial crisis is completely different from the Asian financial crisis in 1997, showing new features, and relevant experts call it a "new crisis." In 2008, the financial turmoil caused by the US subprime mortgage crisis began to sweep the world. The economies of various countries have fallen, and the stock markets have severely turbulent, especially in the Britain, Three Kingdoms of Pineapple Dihai and India. It began to spread to its nearby countries and regions, and China was also affected. This article analyzes the current status of China's entrepreneurial investment and foreign trade services from the current crisis background, and proposes corresponding measures.
[Keywords] The financial crisis entrepreneurial investment foreign trade service measures
. Entrepreneurship investment and foreign trade under the financial crisis
Under the sweeping, the international market was turbulent, the stock market plummeted, and the unemployment rate increased. In 2005 and 2006, the RMB appreciated, while raw materials rose, credit shrinks, many small and medium -sized enterprises, because there are no scientific and technological strength, such as clothing, shoes and hats, hardware, toys, etc., tens of thousands of companies have been withdrawn, causing many companies to operate at a loss. Foreign trade orders have been reduced in large quantities, and finally bankruptcy is closed down. Such examples are countless! The following focuses on the possible foreign trade status in 2009.
At present, the joint operations adopted by governments around the financial crisis have not been obvious. The financial crisis has caused the intensity of the real economy to decline. However, various signs show that the foreign trade import and export situation in 2009 is more severe, but there are certain variables, there are difficulties and opportunities.
1. Injection factors affecting foreign trade next year:
(1), the world economy will fall into a downturn, and the possibility of deepening the crisis will not be ruled out.
, although the governments of various countries are taking coordination to build a defense embankment, this financial tsunami does not cause the Great Depression in 1929, but the resolution of market confidence, system and structural issues are expected to go through a longer experience. process. Optimistic estimation is that the economy of developed countries will have to wait at least in the second half of 2009, or even later. It is difficult to determine that developing countries and emerging economies are affected by the financial crisis. The entire world economy will enter a long period of downturn. At present, the real estate market has not shown signs of the overall recovery, and the issue of secondary loan may still deteriorate, causing more non -performing credit of financial institutions to surface. Therefore, the possibility of deepening the financial crisis is not ruled out.
(2) The prices of primary products continue to be in high levels and fierce oscillation.
Although primary products have recently fallen, the main factor of the rise in energy and resource commodities in recent years -the huge demand from emerging markets, and American biological energy policy has not changed. The supply of energy and resource commodities has suffered from increasing difficulty in mining, insufficient investment in production countries, and a reduction in the area of agricultural production arable land. The increase in supply is not easy. In order to maintain a high price, OPEC has recently been brewing to reduce global oil production. The large amount of liquidity injected by countries in order to save the financial market and worry about the decline in currency value such as the US dollar will make more international tourism make commodity futures as a hedging tool. These factors will exacerbate the price of the international commodity market.
(3) The prospects of Doha's rounds are dim, and the threat of trade protectionism has increased.
The financial crisis in 1997 is different from some markets. This time, developed economies such as the United States and Europe have fallen into the financial crisis, affecting the stable operation of global trade. After the rupture of the Daha Round negotiations in July, although many members, especially developing countries, wanted to restart the negotiations, it was difficult to bring in some fundamental differences in the short term. The outbreak of the financial crisis made the prospects of the Dorha round make breakthroughs. Not only that, the reduction of trade volume and the rise in unemployment rates will also make some countries and regions adopt more conservative trade policies, and the global threat of trade protectionism will increase.
2. The variables that affect foreign trade next year
. Although the foreign trade situation next year is more severe, it should be seen that the fundamentals of the world economy are still good. my country's domestic economic fundamentals are healthy, and my country's foreign trade has no foreign trade. Large landslides appear. What is the trend of foreign trade next year, there are some uncertainty, mainly depending on the following conditions:
(1), market demand.
The international market demand is a decisive factor affecting exports. At present, the economic growth of various countries has slowed to varying degrees, and the economic downturn directly affects people’s purchasing power and confidence in economic development prospects. Market demand is not cheerful. my country, the European Union, and Japan's three major economies directly and indirect exports account for nearly 60%of the total exports. Next year, the economic situation of major markets such as the United States, Europe, and Japan is not optimistic, and the difficulty of maintaining rapid growth in emerging market economies is also increasing. This will directly affect the demand for the international market next year and determine the overall situation of exports next year.
(2), policy continuation.
It the country's export tax refund from the country many times in the first half of last year and the first half of this year to increase the export tax refund of some commodities in the second half of this year, indicating that the Chinese government has gradually realized that exports have reached difficulties. In addition to export tax refund, measures to improve the foreign trade environment also include the convenience of customs clearance, import and export taxes, foreign exchange management, etc., as well as supporting advantageous enterprises and products exports, encouraging financial institutions to increase loans to small and medium -sized export enterprises, broaden small and medium -sized enterprises direct financing channels for small and medium -sized enterprises Increase product imports in China. Next year, whether the state can further improve the foreign trade environment and continue to give policy support to foreign trade exports, it will have a greater impact on corporate confidence and foreign trade trend.
(3) Corporate confidence.
Corporate confidence is also a very important factor. In the face of the financial crisis, pessimistic companies will consider it the end, which will close the enterprise or let the enterprise go bankrupt; optimistic companies will believe that it is a rare opportunity for the market to reshuffle and stand on the stand on the stand, and take all measures to spend the difficulties. At present, my country's domestic economy has maintained rapid growth, emerging markets still have great potential, and the world's major economy economy has not fundamentally deteriorated. As an export company, it is lacking to look at the prospects of low world economic development. Now that it is necessary to establish confidence, companies should actively respond to difficult situations through exports to domestic sales, reduce operating costs, and open up emerging markets to actively respond to difficulties and win this tough battle.
(2) Copy measures
1. Small and medium -sized financial crisis is based on long -term development
First of all, small and medium -sized enterprises can develop in the transformation. The development of an enterprise is inseparable from the clear development goals "positioning" and the "transformation" in the later development. Moreover, the two are not contradictory, but they are complementary and promoted. The "positioning" of enterprise development goals is clear and helps to "transform" success, and the success of "transformation" has also strengthened the accuracy of the "positioning" of the enterprise.
However, the development of the enterprise is not smooth sailing. When it encounters the development bottleneck, at this time, its "product innovation" and "technical upgrade" will mention the agenda. As long as innovative products can meet changing market demand, they can win the favor of customers. The success of more companies' "transformation" is bound to promote the upgrading and development of the entire industry. As a result, some people say that industrial upgrading is "forced" in the market. Indeed, it is restricted when the production model of labor -intensive products is simply relying on labor -intensive products. Enterprises should consider the problem of "transformation", and "technical upgrade" and "product innovation" have become the weapon for the transformation of the company. Enterprises should consider their own development issues from a long -term strategic perspective.
Secondly, small and medium -sized enterprises rely on their own strength. In fact, "transformation" is also a "development". The "transformation" of small and medium -sized enterprises can not be achieved in one day. It may take a while to see the results. And it is easier to succeed in the results of the internal and external effects. Indeed, there is always a force to promote the transformation and development of the enterprise. And its core power is to rely on the development of the enterprise itself. In the cusp of the financial crisis that rays around the world, enterprises must read the economic vane, and they must be equipped with professional talents in financial aspects, and even set up special financial situation analysis institutions to help enterprises transform. Although this may be very high for SMEs, and not every company can be achieved, but this is an inevitable need to cater to the development of the modern financial industry. In addition, if companies want to successfully transform and develop for a long time, they need to invest more in research and development in the early stage. In addition, "funds" must be fully combined with "talent" and attract enough attention. Entrepreneurs must have a career, and after making money, they should invest in scientific research projects to promote the virtuous circle of enterprises. As long as you know how to invest, you can develop, and you can find opportunities for financing.
third, the government supports promoting the transformation of small and medium -sized enterprises. In addition to relying on its own power, the development of an enterprise also rely on external forces. Of course, the external force here actually includes many aspects, such as a joint venture with international companies or forming an alliance with relevant institutions, but it is very important that the government should should With corresponding responsibilities, the development of small and medium -sized enterprises cannot be separated from the support of government policies. Moreover, if there is no targeted preferential policy and lack of funds, competition with large and medium -sized enterprises will also fall into a very passive situation. Essence For example, government help and so on! However, any SME must be soberly aware that although the state and local governments will provide all conditions as much as possible, the government is absolutely impossible to do so that all small and medium -sized enterprises will survive. Even so, financial institutions cannot do it, after all, they must consider the risk of borrowing. Therefore, if you want to survive for a long time, you must first rely on your own strength to grasp market demand. It is also necessary to have a good interpretation of the government's support policies and formulate its own direction according to its instructions. For example, during this period, the state will focus on supporting the development of the scientific and technological industry. Then, your company is best to intervene in this field or an industry with related. Because such fields are likely to get more policy support including finance, tax, and even bank credit.
The transformed enterprise has experienced great training, and has strong anti -risk capabilities. For example, foreign trade companies can transform from transformation to slowly switch from main import and export to the domestic market, extend exports to the domestic market, and at the same time put on the domestic market. At the same time Consumption is attracted to the domestic market, so there is an additional insurance. Both funds and products have a better development direction. At the same time, it also caters to the current national regulations and policies.
2. Drumming confidence to retreat.
"retreating" is a strategy. Today, in the situation where the global economy is not downturn, for SMEs, which industry is more advantageous, it may be almost the same. His future development has a more sober understanding. Before joining the WTO in my country, not only, the policy environment of enterprise development is good, but it also has a competitive advantage in terms of labor costs and plant land use. As a result, small and medium -sized enterprises have developed rapidly in the past few years.
The first aspect, small and medium -sized enterprises need to carry out "technical upgrade" and "product innovation". In fact, the great weakness of small and medium -sized enterprises in my country is the lack of technology, research and development, and innovation. In the past, the export advantage of relying on low labor has gradually been lost. Therefore, it is necessary to invest more energy in product innovation and technical equipment upgrades. This is also a point that SMEs must recognize in the future.
It aspects, small and medium -sized enterprises in my country, especially small and medium -sized enterprises, need to be equipped with some talents who are familiar with the economy and financial fields. Prior to the reform of the exchange in May 2005, there was basically no exchange rate risk in China's exports, and the volatility risk of the US dollar and the RMB on the market was not large. The problem of mutation of foreign markets and silver roots. However, in the face of the current financial turmoil, enterprises must consider their own survival problems, and they must understand the relevant knowledge and foreign trade policies including export exchange rates and foreign trade policies. Even professional personnel need to study and analyze the changes in exchange rates to give the necessary guidance to the development of the enterprise.
In third, under the integration of the international economic and financial system, companies should understand and master the changes in international financial policies. It is very important to understand the financial policy of the international, especially foreign trade enterprises. The more important thing is the international "silver root change". The so -called "silver root change" refers to the tight and pine from the silver roots from the Federal Reserve to the People's Bank of China, including deposit reserves, loan interest rates, and resident deposit interest rates, including deposit reserve ratios, which are likely to be based on the state's macro policy Come and constantly regulate.
Is when the financial crisis is raging around the world, if SMEs can find a "retreat" method to reduce the impact of the crisis on the company to the lowest point, this is a praise. Under the "crisis", "survival" is the most important. We must further develop the living space of enterprises, understand the situation of the economy and finance at home and abroad today, and develop savings for enterprises in the future. sheep!
3. Investment and entrepreneurship under the financial crisis: The first cash flow
For entrepreneurs who invest in small books, how to choose an entrepreneurial project to deal with the financial turmoil? Some entrepreneurs and economists who have summarized some experience in some entrepreneurs and economists, including Li Dejian, chairman of Dezhuang Group, and Pan Xiaocheng, a doctor of economics from Southwest University.
First of all, in various industries, you must choose industries with fast cash flow. When the economy is downturn, it is very serious in arrears. If it is a industry with a slow cash flow, the small enterprises just founded will be dragged down without paying attention to it, and sufficient cash flow can ensure at least survive. Catering, dry cleaning, car washing and other industries are industries with fast cash flow.
Secondly, it is necessary to do the traditional mass consumer industry. At any time, the basic consumer market is the most reliable, regardless of economic prosperity or depression. Consumption is divided into mass consumption and luxury consumption. For example, Starbucks is a leisure consumption, and now you must be cautious to join. In the same way, investing in industries such as tourism and automobiles should be careful.
. The entrepreneurial opportunity under the financial crisis is greater than the challenge
The crisis comes on the one hand, and some weak or long -term problems will be eaten, causing some inevitable tragedies and pain. At the same time, the alarm clock was ranging all the companies, and people could remember lessons in the face of disaster and pain and reflected in depth. On the other hand, companies that have not fallen in the crisis have increased their awareness of risk, adopted more positive strategies and adjustment measures, so that companies overcome many shortcomings that are difficult to expose, strengthened internal coordination, and finally enhanced crisis response to crisis response And the physical strength of winter and cold. Opportunities and challenges in the venture capital industry under the financial crisis!
In the financial crisis, entrepreneurial financing will definitely be more difficult, because investment in the entire investment community will be more cautious. "Chen Aiguo, general manager of Shanghai Venture Investment Management Co., Ltd., further explained that the investment community is mainly profitable through the capital market. Under the current financial crisis, the assets of the company invested by venture capital merchants are shrinking, and the value of enterprises is decreasing. The value of venture capitalors has the value of shares, so they would rather choose not to invest. Although the financial crisis has caused cautious investments in venture capitalists, in the view of Liu Qingfeng, president of Anhui Zhongke Da News Flying Information Co., Ltd. It is a challenge for college students and entrepreneurs. It is also an opportunity. He believes that from a partial point of view, the global financial crisis may be an opportunity for China to rise faster. Fast. Since the global financial environment is not good, the country must develop new industries and new directions with potential and high core capabilities. This new direction choice may allow the emerging enterprises and traditions of entrepreneurially entrepreneurship. The industry stands on the same starting line, which brings the opportunity to entrepreneurs.
"The international situation is good, maybe your entrepreneurial project direction is good, the international situation is not good, it is not necessarily your entrepreneurial project direction. "Liu Qingfeng believes that the current situation is more opportunities for entrepreneurs than challenges. He encourages entrepreneurs to start a business as long as you think clearly. The impact of the financial crisis can be entrepreneurship without export -oriented projects.
Sacer's Asian venture capitalist Yan Yan also expressed their views in an interview: venture capital is when others dare not invest in investment. Investment is more opportunities for the venture capital fund, especially when the financial turmoil is the most favorable. High -quality companies, at this time, the stock price has fallen, maybe for investors. May Yan Yan: There is also a negative impact. For example, after the investment, the stocks of listed companies will fluctuate and fall sharply. However, for venture capital, most companies still have no listing, and the impact of companies without listing is very small. Then from another perspective, from the perspective of investment, the source of investment projects has expanded. When the stock market was relatively high, the source of your investment project was relatively limited. Now you can invest in some listed companies. In addition Therefore, for the real venture capital fund, the only beneficiary may be the volatility of a large financial market. (Host: in the financial crisis, people who do venture capital will not only be idle, but they will not be idle, but they will not be idle. It will be more busy than before, because venture capital is more likely to risk than other investment funds, is it?) Yan Yan: That's it.
For a person who is proficient in business, you need to persevere and actively save yourself. At the same time, it is easier to expose the problems of enterprises at such special moments, stimulate entrepreneurs' self -rescue determination and potential. The crisis is not It must not be a good thing, just as "wolf is coming" to distinguish the problem.
The crisis on the one hand is coming, and some weak or long -term problems will be eaten, causing inevitable tragedy and pain. At the same time, the alarm clock was ranging all the companies, and people could remember lessons in the face of disaster and pain and reflected in depth.
On the other hand, companies that have not fallen in the crisis have increased their awareness of risk, adopted more positive strategies and adjustment measures, so that companies overcome many shortcomings that are difficult to expose and strengthened internal coordination. In the end Enhance the physical strength of crisis and the cold of winter.
We must see that the arrival of this emerging financial crisis also contains huge "business opportunities" to China. When this round of financial crisis occurs, the asset prices of many emerging markets will shrink significantly. This will be an excellent time for Chinese funds to go abroad to these countries. good time. To this end, the Chinese economy needs to be prepared for funding and project research. From a macro level, macroeconomic policies must consider the possibility of this round of new financial crisis, and must be stable on the issue of funds. pressure. When a round of financial crisis occurs, Chu You's economic growth rate will inevitably decline. Our fiscal policy must retain a certain degree of flexibility. Under the premise of continuing to implement the current steady fiscal policy, we must do a good job of projects and funds. Once a new round of financial crisis occurs in neighboring countries, China can turn to positive fiscal policies and find some investment projects with capital guarantee and social benefits.
In short, the risk of a new round of financial crisis has arrived. The Chinese giant wheel that advances at full speed must take into account the impact of the financial turmoil, seize opportunities, and resolve risks. Our economic development will be bright.
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wholesale aromatherapy jewelry The US subprime mortgage crisis, which began in February last year, has now evolved into a financial crisis that swept the United States and affects the world. As a country that is actively integrated into the world economy and financial system, China is naturally unable to settle. So, what impact will the US financial crisis bring on China? Where will the Chinese economy go?
In an important pillar of the US economy is domestic consumption. Before the subprime crisis broke out, the United States continued to obtain products and labor in other countries by exporting the US dollar to the dollar. At the same time, it was also for many countries, especially development The Chinese family provides an important market. The outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis and the financial crisis, the confidence of the United States of the United States has shrinking the economy, and the continued decrease in consumption capacity and consumption desires, which will definitely reduce demand for foreign products and reduce US imports.
The United States is the second largest trading partner in China. The conduction effect of the US financial crisis on China's foreign trade exports has now appeared. Statistics of the General Administration of Customs show that the proportion of the United States in China's total import and export has dropped from 14.2%in August last year to 12.7%in August this year. Because foreign trade is an important part of national income, the continuous decline in US trade will also have a certain adverse effect on my country's economic growth.
If products exported to the United States, labor -intensive products such as textiles, shoes and socks, bottom -up daily necessities occupy a considerable proportion. The main consumer groups of these products are low -income classes in the United States. They have suffered a lot of losses in this financial crisis, which will definitely affect the export of the United States to the United States to a large extent. At the same time, the exports of these labor -intensive products in my country mainly rely on price advantages to compete with other developing countries. Due to the weak US dollar and appreciation of the RMB brought by the financial crisis, the price advantage of Chinese companies is absent, and exports have been further suppressed.
It, we cannot ignore that most of the small and medium -sized enterprises in my country that are affected by the US financial crisis belong to the labor -intensive industry, which is one of the negative impacts brought by the US financial crisis on my country.
The financial crisis in the United States has suppressed my country's economic growth to a certain extent. However, on the other hand, due to the outbreak of the US financial crisis, world energy and resources prices have declined under the influence of economic downturn and decline. my country can use world energy and resource prices to decline, which is favorable to promote economic development.
The financial crisis in the United States has had a certain impact on my country's economy, and this impact will last a certain time. So, how can we eliminate the adverse effects of the financial crisis on our country? On the one hand, it depends on the time and extent of the United States recovering from the financial crisis. On the other hand, it also needs to take measures in my country to actively solve various problems brought by the financial crisis.
For the foreign trade export industry, we must first actively expand other overseas markets to make up for the losses caused by the shrinking of the US market. At the same time, it is necessary to expand domestic demand and use domestic consumption to digest the "excess" capacity.
The impact on the US financial crisis on my country's foreign exchange reserves on the one hand, to optimize my country's foreign exchange reserves and gradually reduce the proportion of US dollar assets, in order to enhance my country's foreign exchange reserves in the face of financial crisis and turbulence Risk capacity and value preservation and value -added capacity; on the other hand, we must accelerate the process of internationalization of the RMB. As China continues to be strong, it is continuously integrated into the international financial environment, and the further internationalization of the RMB can obtain a certain amount of a certain number of world powers. The right to speak, gain the status of international settlement. In fact, the US dollar international currency status will be shaken because people's confidence in the US dollar is no longer so firm, and the currency pattern has the opportunity to re -lay out.
The flexibly use monetary policy to deal with emergencies. The US financial crisis is caused by the rupture of the real estate bubble, but the deepening reason is the virtualization of currency, and the economic leverage caused the crisis caused by the socialization of financial risks. The floating policy adopted by the United States is the fuse that directly leads to the financial crisis. The United States raises interest rates for 17 consecutive times, resulting in sub -loan customers who do not afford monthly supply and direct outreach supply phenomenon, resulting in the outbreak of the financial crisis. We have to take it as a precept and use monetary policy to deal with emergencies. At present, the state's series of stability and assistance policies for the stock market (unilateral collection of stamp duty, pilot financing policy will be piloted, etc.) and the collective rebound of real estate stocks are also a reflection of related policies.
It, the regulatory authorities will continue to strengthen the prudent supervision and services of financial institutions, urge financial institutions to strengthen their own risk management, improve anti -risk capabilities, and maintain the normal order of the capital market.
houston wholesale jewelry supplies Disadvantages: Since the beginning of this year, various unfavorable factors are superimposed, and foreign trade exports are facing a two -tight operating environment internal and external. The change in "three -rate and two -price" affects the various aspects of the business operation, the increasing number of factors that cause export uncertainty, and the growth of foreign trade exports is extremely difficult. In the fourth quarter of this year and next year, the uncertain factors have further increased, and economic development will face a more severe situation. Recently, the financial turmoil of Wall Street has aroused violent international financial turmoil, and the financial turmoil has gradually evolved into a global financial crisis, and even developed into an impact on the real economy. As the main market for foreign trade exports in our city and the main source of foreign investment, financial turmoil and decline in foreign demand will inevitably have a lot of adverse effects on our city's foreign economic and trade. The influence of "three -rate and two -price" will still have a great impact on export companies for a long time. The significant shock in the raw material market will affect the production and export arrangements of enterprises. Generally speaking, foreign trade exports will still face great uncertainty next year, and the difficulties in this year may further intensify.
The favorable factors: The national macro -control policy has changed the policy of tightening exports and is changing towards the direction of favorable enterprises. First, on August 1st and October 21st, the state raised the export tax rate of textiles, clothing, toys, toys, aquatic products, furniture, plastics and products, daily use and art ceramics, and some electromechanical products, involving a total of 3486 The item, which accounts for about 25.8%of the total number of customs tariffs. The city's 3,169 companies have benefited from 25.7%of the export goods, increasing the tax refund funds of nearly 400 million yuan. Second, on September 19th, October 15th, and October 29th, the state has lowered the interest rate of commercial banks for three consecutive times in a row. The one -year benchmark loan has fallen to 6.66%, which is conducive to reducing corporate financing costs. Third, on October 19th, the State Council Executive Committee proposed "to maintain steady growth and export of import and export. Increase labor -intensive products such as clothing, textiles and other labor export tax refund rates, support superior enterprises and product exports, increase product imports that domestic needs , Promote the basic balance of international revenue and expenditure. "According to the spirit of the meeting, the state will support the development of enterprises from monetary policy and fiscal policy, and will further increase the export tax refund rate and increase the support for financing of SMEs. The Central Foreign Trade Development Fund will also adjust the direction of use to increase support for labor -intensive enterprises. Fourth, the value -added tax to the production type to consumer type will also stimulate enterprise investment and reduce corporate tax burden. These will have a certain effect on alleviating foreign economic and trade difficulties and maintaining the steady growth of foreign trade. However, due to the release of policy effects, there is a certain lagging period, and the development of the short -term domestic and foreign trade is still very severe.