What is the prospect of the photovoltaic industry?

The main listed companies in the industry: Listed companies in the domestic photovoltaic industry include Longji (601012), Jin Gao Technology (002459), Jingke Energy (688223), Tongwei (600438), Tianhe Optical Energy (688599) and so on.
Colidal data: capacity utilization, installation capacity, abandonment rate, photovoltaic power generation, system construction cost.
industry overview
1. Definition
The photovoltaic industry, referred to as PV (photovoltaic), mainly refers to the photoelectric conversion industry chain formed by the development of silicon materials, including high -pure polysilicon raw materials, solar cell production, solar energy Battery component production, related production equipment manufacturing and photovoltaic power generation. With the advancement of carbon dioxide emissions, the construction of new power systems with new energy as the main body is accelerating. The photovoltaic and Fuxing high -speed rail, domestic commercial aircraft, and a new generation of carrier rockets have won the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. The status of the photovoltaic industry has been significantly improved and ushered in historic development opportunities.
The downstream applications of the photovoltaic industry are mainly photovoltaic power generation. The positioning of the construction plan can be divided into a centralized photovoltaic power generation system and a distributed photovoltaic power generation system. A centralized photovoltaic power generation system, such as large northwest ground photovoltaic power generation system; distributed photovoltaic power generation system (with> 6MW), such as roof photovoltaic power generation systems of industrial and commercial enterprises and residential buildings.
2. Industrial chain analysis: industrial chain length.
As photovoltaic power generation has played an increasingly important role in the energy supply system, photovoltaic -related industries have also grown, forming a high -purity silicon material, silicon ingot/stick/piece, battery/component, photovoltaic auxiliary material The complete industrial chain of system integration and application of accessories and photovoltaic production equipment to photovoltaic products.
The upstream of the photovoltaic industry chain is mainly raw materials related to photovoltaic batteries, including single crystal silicon and polysilicon that constitute batteries. The upstream single crystal silicon and polysilicon manufacturers mainly include Poly GCL, Longji, Tongwei, and Central. However, silicon wafers have shown a double oligopoly pattern, and China's solar silicon wafers occupy most of the world's market share. In the Chinese market, mainstream manufacturers mainly include Longji and Central, and the capacity pattern is still highly concentrated. In the scale of silicon wafers, Central and Longji occupy an absolute leading position.
It is mainly battery chips and battery module manufacturers and system integration enterprises. The midstream manufacturers of battery chips and modules mainly include Tongwei, Longji, Jingao, etc. The inverter manufacturers in photovoltaic power generation systems mainly include sunlight power supply and other companies; system integration includes 100 billion crystal photoelectric and Zhengtai Electric. Some companies such as Longji have basically formed a complete photovoltaic power generation industry chain from single crystal silicon to components to power stations. It is the field of downstream photovoltaic power generation, including distributed photovoltaic power generation and centralized power stations.
The industry development process: The industry is in the stage of rapid development.
Driven from the demand of the European market, China's photovoltaic industry started around 2005. For more than ten years, the large -scale development has been achieved, and a complete market environment and supporting environment have been established. Become a few strategic emerging industries that can participate in international competition at the same time and reach the international leading level at the same time. It has also become a new business card for China's industrial economic development and an important engine to promote China's energy reform. At present, my country's photovoltaic industry ranks among the top in the world in terms of manufacturing scale, industrialization technology level, application market expansion and industrial system construction, and has a solid intelligent photovoltaic foundation. China's photovoltaic industry has gone through the following historical stages:
The industry background: policy blessing, the accelerated development of the photovoltaic industry
The country has implemented the "Renewable Energy Law of the People's Republic of my country" since January 1, 2006. The law enables the development of renewable energy sources as a priority area for energy development, promotes increasing energy supply, improves energy structure, guarantees energy security, protects the environment, and achieves sustainable economic and social development, and establishes and develops renewable energy markets. Since 2006, in order to encourage and support the development of the photovoltaic industry, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Energy Administration, and the Ministry of Housing and Construction have introduced policy documents to support and standardize the development of photovoltaic industry, covering production, sales, fiscal and taxation, subsidies, subsidies , Related aspects of land policy and other industries.
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Ministry of Transportation, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and the National Energy Administration jointly released the "Innovation and Development Action Plan for Innovation and Development of the Intelligent Photovoltaic Industry (2021-2025)", which aims to "fifteen "During the period, effectively guided the intelligent upgrade of the industry, promoted the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry, thereby promoting the large -scale application of photovoltaic power generation, and maintaining my country's position as the largest country as a world for photovoltaic manufacturing and installation.
"Peak Carbon neutralization of carbon dioxide emissions in 3060" is a systemic economic and social change with multiple goals and restraints.重塑中国经济结构、能源结构，改变生产方式和生活方式是历史性的突破，需要处理好发展与减排、减碳与安全、整体与局部、短期与中期、建立与破除、政府与市场、 Domestic and international multi -dimensional relations. The goal of "peak carbon dioxide emissions, carbon neutralization" will have a significant multi -dimensional impact on China's photovoltaic industry.
The development status of the industry
1. The supply capacity of photovoltaic products is strong, and the capacity utilization rate needs to be improved.
If according to the output and capacity utilization rate of photovoltaic products in the photovoltaic industry market, the Chinese photovoltaic product market has strong supply capacity in 2021. The output of Longji Green Volks for photovoltaic products is far ahead of other companies. The output of crystal components reached 38.69GW. From the perspective of capacity utilization, the capacity utilization rate of the photovoltaic market company in 2021 is not high, and there is still much room for improvement.
2. The new highlights of photovoltaic installations hit a new high, and the cumulative installed machine exceeds 300 GW.
The solar photovoltaic industry in my country has started late, but develops rapidly. Especially since 2013, with the promotion of national and regional policies, solar photovoltaic power generation has shown explosive growth in my country. According to statistics from the National Energy Administration, in 2017, my country ’s photovoltaic power generation installation was 53.06GW, a record high. In 2018, affected by the new policy of photovoltaic 531, new projects for photovoltaic power generation projects in various places declined. New installations throughout the year were affected by the national photovoltaic industry subsidies and financial support policies. In 2020 and 2021, photovoltaic installations rose sharply. In 2020, China's photovoltaic installation capacity increased by 48.20GW, an increase of 59%year -on -year. In 2021, China's photovoltaic installation machine reached a new high, reaching 54.88GW, a year -on -year increase of 14%.
In statistics from the National Energy Administration, since 2013, my country's cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation has grown rapidly. In 2013, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in my country was only 19.42GW, and by 2019, it has increased to 204.58GW. From 2013 to 2019, the cumulative installed capacity of China's photovoltaic power generation increased by more than 10 times. By 2021, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation nationwide was 306.56GW, a year -on -year increase of 21%.
3. The rate of photovoltaic abandonment decreased significantly, and photovoltaic power generation increased steadily.
With the rapid development of photovoltaic power generation, there are serious problems in some places. According to data from the National Energy Administration, from 2015 to 2018, Xinjiang and Gansu's highest abandonment rates exceeded 30%. From 2019 to 2021, Xinjiang and Gansu's abandonment rate decreased significantly. In 2021, Xinjiang's light abandonment rate fell to 1.7%and Gansu dropped to 1.5%. The sharp decline in the abandonment rate is mainly due to the grid operation of photovoltaic power generation, which promotes the level of resource utilization.
In statistics from the National Energy Administration, since 2013, my country's photovoltaic power generation has grown rapidly. The national photovoltaic power generation in 2013 was only 9.1 billion kWh. By 2021, the national photovoltaic power generation was 325.9 billion kilowatt -hours, a year -on -year increase of 25%. It is estimated that in 2021, my country's photovoltaic power generation will account for 3.92%of the power consumption of the whole society.
4. The construction cost of photovoltaic power generation systems showed a downward trend, and photovoltaic Internet access entered parity.
The initial investment in my country's ground photovoltaic system is mainly consisting of components, inverters, brackets, cables, primary equipment and secondary equipment, as well as the composition of land costs, power grid access, construction installation and management costs. Among them, the first device includes box -type transformers, main transformers, switch cabinets, boost stations (50MW, 110kV) and other equipment. The secondary equipment includes monitoring and communication equipment. Land costs include the full life cycle land rent, vegetation recovery fee or related compensation fee; the access cost of the power grid only includes reverse transformation of 50MW, 110kV, and 10km; management expenses include preliminary management, survey, design and tender. Construction and installation costs are mainly labor costs, earthwork engineering fees, conventional reinforced concrete fees, etc. And there is little room for decline in the future. With the advancement of technological progress and scale, the cost of key equipment such as components and inverters still has some room for decline. Network connection, land, preliminary project development costs, etc. They are all non -technical costs, and different regions and projects are very different. Reducing non -technical costs will help accelerate the promotion of low prices of photovoltaic power generation.
2021 The initial investment cost of the Ground Photovoltaic system in the middle of the country was about 4.15 yuan/W, an increase of 0.16 yuan/W in 2020, an increase of 4%. Among them, components accounted for about 46%of investment costs, an increase of 7%over 2020. Non -technical costs accounted for about 14.1%(excluding financing costs), a decrease of 3.2 percentage points from 2020. It is estimated that in 2022, with the gradual release of new production capacity in all aspects of the industrial chain, component prices will return to a reasonable level, and the initial investment cost of the photovoltaic system will be reduced to 3.93 yuan/W.
The initial total investment in China's industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic system is mainly composed of components, inverters, brackets, cables, installation fees, grid -connected, roof leasing, roof reinforcement, primary equipment and secondary equipment. One device includes box transformers, switch boxes and prefabricated compartment. According to China's photovoltaic industry development roadmap, the initial investment costs of China's industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic systems in 2020 and 2021 were 3.38 yuan/W and 3.74 yuan/W, respectively, and it is expected that it will drop to 3.53 yuan/W in 2022.
2020 The Policies of Photovoltaic Internet Electricity Prices in the Middle School of China, which is close to the price of affairs: China ’s online electricity price policy has gone through three stages: benchmarking electricity price, bidding Internet access, and affordable Internet access. The scale of bidding projects in 2020 was 26GW, an increase of 14%. At the same time, in 2020, it will also be a photovoltaic parallel parallel price year. The parity project will be 33GW, an increase of 124%, which exceeds the scale of the bidding project for the first time. The parity is approaching, and 2021 will be the first year of the comprehensive parity of China's photovoltaic Internet.

This prospect is very good because the country vigorously develops new energy business and reduces some pollution and emissions. Therefore, the prospect of this industry will be very advantageous, and it will definitely be mixed with a lot of use.